Fresh from a 10/1 winner in midweek, our betting expert Jones Knows unleashes his Premier League insight across the final round of matches.
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea, Sunday 4pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Chelsea are the vulnerable ones in the final day race for the Champions League.
Based on their soft underbelly away from home, winning just one of their last 10 Premier League games, this is a great spot for Nottingham Forest.
A criticism of Enzo Maresca this season has been the predictability of Chelsea’s play and that is more apparent when you remove Nicholas Jackson from the equation as he does bring a bit of surprise and directness to what Chelsea are trying to serve up. Forest’s defensive duo of Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo will fancy their chances of another shutout.
Forest to win to nil is 5/1 with Sky Bet and it’s a bet that’s landed in seven of their last 15 Premier League home games against the likes of Man City, Man Utd, Spurs, Crystal Palace and Brighton. It’s worth a nibble.
But the best bet lies in the shots market.
If you exclude the relegated clubs, only Brentford and West Ham concede more home shots than Nottingham Forest. Marc Cucurella has been one of Chelsea’s most consistent operators all season and he comes into this having a shot in 22 of his last 31 appearances, averaging 0.90 shots per-90 across the whole season.
Sunday 25th May 4:00pm
Kick off 4:00pm
In a game Chelsea need to win, he’ll be to the fore of their attacking process and is 10/11 with Sky Bet to have at least one shot.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Marc Cucurella to have +1 shots (10/11 with Sky Bet)
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 4pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Over the past 10 seasons, the final day of the Premier League season has averaged 3.41 goals per game – 87 per cent of those matches have featured over 1.5 goals and 65 per cent have delivered over 2.5 goals. Over those 10 years, the average goal on the final matchday increases 0.6 per match from the overall average total goal count per match. That’s a big spike.
Teams are more likely to play with a bit more freedom in a no-pressure environment. It’s attack-minded football to the fore. And this game just screams a mad scoreline.
Final-day games have the tendency to go into overdrive in terms of a scoreline. Remember Crystal Palace 5-3 Bournemouth in 2019? Or Tottenham 5-4 Leicester in 2018? How about Hull City 1-7 Tottenham in 2017? And there was relegated Southampton drawing 4-4 Liverpool last season.
On the final day it can pay to play the big lines, so over 5.5 goals at 7/2 with Sky Bet is certainly a runner.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-3
Manchester United vs Aston Villa, Sunday 4pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Villa are finishing the season like title contenders and this is a fixture sent from heaven for them. You couldn’t hand-pick a more welcoming host.
Unai Emery has got Villa so well-drilled. They’ve won seven of their last eight Premier League games with their only defeat being a last-minute goal at Manchester City. The underlying process has been the best in the entire division over that stretch, especially in defence where their 0.85 expected goals against per 90 is unmatched.
Manchester United are guaranteed their lowest finish since promotion to the top-flight in 1975 and the home fans will be preparing the tomatoes for the lap of honour at the end of the final game.
Villa to win to nil at 9/4 with Sky Bet has a great chance.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Only once in Premier League history has a team entered the final day in a Champions League place and failed to qualify.
Newcastle will be there with a win. A point will be enough if Forest vs Chelsea ends in a draw or Villa fail to win.
Eddie Howe’s team are a reliable bunch at home, winning their last six at St James’ Park, scoring 20 goals.
If they win this, it will be their most points (41) and most wins (13) at home in a Premier League campaign since 2003. It’s hard to see anything but the 1/3 with Sky Bet landing – but how do we get a palatable price? The goalscorer market looks the place to be with Sandro Tonali the standout at 11/2 to score anytime. He has scored three in his last five home games as the Toon faithful do seem to inspire him.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0
Fulham vs Manchester City, Sunday 4pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
After the season Manchester City have had, is trusting them at 4/7 with Sky Bet to win away from home really a wise decision?
City have won just one away game against teams currently in the top 12, which was a 2-0 win at Chelsea. And Fulham have an impressive home record this season against teams currently in the top nine, winning five of their eight games.
This is officially their best Premier League season so the market is disrespecting them slightly with 4/1 with Sky Bet on offer for the home win.
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Highlights from the Premier League match between Manchester City and Bournemouth.
I’m going to meet in the middle and back the draw at 16/5 with Sky Bet as a point will be enough for City in their Champions League qualification pursuit due to their superior goal difference over Villa.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Tottenham vs Brighton, Sunday 4pm
Spurs at bigger than 3/1 with Sky Bet is a real tempter. The market has gone completely overboard with the hangover factor from midweek and is offering up very tantalising prices on the home win.
Spurs of course have lost 21 of 37 Premier League games but this just might be a bigger game for Ange Postecoglou than what the market is predicting.
You get the impression he really wants to keep this job to try and build this Spurs team. As a manager he isn’t going to get an opportunity like this anywhere else with the infrastructure and spending power on offer at Spurs – everything is set there behind the scenes to be a regular challenger.
So, it’s in his interest to make sure his team finish the season with a bit of positive momentum to take into those talks with Daniel Levy.
And Brighton don’t need to win this match. A point would be enough to finish eighth which gives them an outside chance of Conference League qualification. Brighton’s defensive record still worries me too, conceding 16 goals in their last eight games to an expected goals against process of 1.8 per game which is borderline relegation levels of form.
With a high-scoring draw a big runner, the double chance on Spurs at 5/4 with Sky Bet looks a big price.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Spurs double chance (5/4 with Sky Bet)
Bournemouth vs Leicester, Sunday 4pm
This has the potential to go down an extreme correct score route, such is the extra possibilities of goals on the final day.
Incredibly though, Bournemouth have only scored more than one goal in just one of their last 13 home matches, which tells you everything you need to know about why they’ve fallen short in their play to make European football. There has been a huge underperformance at play when assessing their expected goals output though, scoring 13 goals in the last 13 when their expected goals figure is at 21.8.
This might be the game where they bring those metrics closer together and give the Foxes a bit of a battering.
The -2 handicap for Bournemouth makes appeal at 9/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 5-1
Ipswich vs West Ham, Sunday 4pm
Being wrong is part of the job. It’s something anyone in this line of work must accept.
However, tipping Leif Davis to be the top assister in the Premier League at the start of the season at 100/1 turned out to be a new level of wrong. Much like Ipswich on the whole, he has been so disappointing in trying to make the step-up after ripping through League One and the Championship.
He has bagged just two assists this season but there were signs of life from him at Leicester last weekend from an attacking standpoint, having two shots and a goal ruled out. He is 9/4 with Sky Bet to score or assist in a game that should be full of goalmouth action.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-3
Southampton vs Arsenal, Sunday 4pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Your mind always must be looking ahead in this game and one of the angles I’m most excited about backing next season is Declan Rice’s total goals output.
He could become one of Arsenal’s top goalscorers next season playing in this attack-minded No 8 role and I’d be a confident backer at any price for him to improve on the total of four he’s bagged in the Premier League this season. He is 7/2 with Sky Bet to score for the third league game running at St Mary’s.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-3
Wolves vs Brentford, Sunday 4pm
We saw a little snapshot of Vitor Pereira not holding back in criticising his players in public following the 4-2 defeat to Crystal Palace. He’s done some amazing work since joining but doubts remain about whether he can rein in his combustible nature to make his tenure one that will work in the longer term.
It’s hard to see how Wolves can stop Brentford scoring multiple goals in this one.
The over 3.5 goals line looks attractive at 5/4 with Sky Bet, as does Yoane Wissa scoring at 11/8. The striker has landed for punters in this market in five of his last six games and has shown this season that there are few better around than him in front of goal in the Premier League. He can get his 20th goal of the campaign.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-3
Yoane Wissa has scored 19 goals this season – he is 11/8 to make it to 20
Jones Knows’ best bet…
- 1pt double on: Marc Cucurella +1 shots & Spurs double chance (3/1 with Sky Bet)
P+L = +18.87
Sky Sports to show 215 live PL games from next season
Sky Sports to show 215 live Premier League games from next season
From next season, Sky Sports’ Premier League coverage will increase from 128 matches to at least 215 games exclusively live.
And 80 per cent of all televised Premier League games next season are on Sky Sports.
