Fresh from a 7/1 winning double, our betting expert Jones Knows unleashes his Premier League insight and sees problems for Chelsea on Friday Night Football.
Aston Villa vs Tottenham, Friday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Tottenham going off 7/1 with Sky Bet for the away win tells you all you need to know about their prospects in this fixture. It’s the biggest price they’ve been by a long way vs a non-big six team in the last 10 years.
Even if you added another zero to that 7/1, I’d be tempted to swerve it.
Villa have a goal in sight and have been relentless in their pursuit of a top-five finish, winning seven of their last eight Premier League games. They’ve crashed the markets and the top five party and are now just 11/10 with Sky Bet to finish there.
Pro-Villa angles are the only betting angles to consider across the props markets and with Jacob Ramsey (suspended) and Youri Tielemans (injured) out for this fixture, backing Boubacar Kamara’s shots lines makes appeal based on he could be playing with attacking licence.
He did last weekend in the win at Bournemouth, hitting two shots, which is way above his season per 90 average of 0.44. It’s 4/1 with Sky Bet for him to repeat the feat and register two or more shots.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-0
Chelsea vs Manchester United, Friday 8.15pm, live on Sky Sports
Nicolas Jackson’s suspension makes this fixture trickier for Chelsea than the 1/3 odds with Sky Bet imply. Jackson has played his last game of this season following that red card at Newcastle and it leaves Enzo Maresca with a huge issue at centre-forward.
Jackson has missed seven Premier League matches for Chelsea this season, they’ve lost four of those matches against Arsenal, Brighton, Aston Villa and Ipswich, scoring just one goal along the way. A criticism of Maresca this season has been the predictability of Chelsea’s play and that is more apparent when you remove Jackson from the equation as he does bring a bit of surprise and directness to what Chelsea are trying to serve up.
Goals could be hard to come by for Maresca’s team without their focal point in attack and when you throw in Manchester United’s inability to put the ball in the net along with what is lurking on the horizon for them on Wednesday in Bilbao, the goal line set by the markets feels too high.
United have failed to score in 14 Premier League games this season – only Southampton, Everton (both 15) and Leicester (16) have blanked more. Since December 22 they have scored just 21 Premier League goals in their 20 games. The under 2.5 goals line is a big price at 13/8 with Sky Bet considering all the correct scores you get on your side.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
FA Cup final: Crystal Palace vs Manchester City, Saturday 4.30pm
Opposing goals in matches at Wembley remains a sustainable long-term betting strategy.
It might be the mecca of English football – to play there is every footballer’s dream – but I’m convinced the place saps the momentum out of a game. Maybe the jeopardy of what is at stake plays a part which in turn leads to low-scoring football matches but I think games there rarely spark into life.
The last 46 domestic and European matches played at Wembley, the average goals per 90 stands at 1.98 goals in normal time and if you backed the under 3.5 line in those 45 games, you’d have won 42 times. Yes, the prices on offer for under 3.5 goals are quite tight but a return at that strike rate means you’d be swimming in profit if backing that line blind.
If you back Crystal Palace +1 handicap (double chance) and under 3.5 goals through the RequestABet function with Sky Bet you have a juicy 7/4 shot on your side with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 (Palace to win on penalties)
Everton vs Southampton, Sunday 12pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Take a look at some of Everton’s best moments at Goodison Park in the Premier League
The Grand Old Lady is set to belt out one final tune and if previous farewell games at stadiums are anything to go by, there should be two things on the menu: a home win and lots of goals.
The final games at Upton Park, Highbury, The Dell, Griffin Park and White Hart Lane all ended with the home team signing off in style with a win and a total of 23 goals scored in those five matches.
Meanwhile, only Sheffield Utd (97 in 23/24) and Swindon (85 in 93/94) have conceded more goals at this stage of a Premier League season than Southampton, so Everton couldn’t have wished for a more welcoming visitor on goodbye Goodison day.
Everton to win and over 2.5 goals at 11/10 with Sky Bet is the way to play.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Everton to win and over 2.5 goals (11/10 with Sky Bet)
West Ham vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2.15pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
The market has got completely carried away with Nottingham Forest here. Just because they need to win, it doesn’t always work out like that.
Taking a price as short as 6/4 with Sky Bet on a Forest win makes little sense based on what Nuno Espirito Santo’s team has been serving up for the past 12 Premier League games.
Across those 12 games their expected goals against process is working at 1.68 per 90 – only Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton have a worse defensive process. They allowed Leicester to create 1.29 worth of expected goals and score twice, so West Ham with Jarrod Bowen and Mohamed Kudus bringing top quality final third to the table, should be confident of scoring multiple goals.
Bowen has five goals or assists in his last four starts and looks overpriced to grab another one at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Jarrod Bowen to score or assist (11/10 with Sky Bet)
Sunday 18th May 1:00pm
Kick off 2:15pm
Brentford don’t want the season to end. They’ve lost just two of their last 12 Premier League games, winning the last four for the first time in the top-flight since 1939.
Only Liverpool, Newcastle, Man City and Arsenal have scored more goals in the league this season (63) with the Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa combination so exciting to watch.
The Bees can sting you from all angles though, including set pieces where the addition of Michael Kayode and his excellent long-throw has given them an extra attacking dimension. Sepp van den Berg is the beneficiary of these clever set pieces and he’s had eight shots from his last 10 starts when playing centre-back. He is 8/11 with Sky Bet for another shot.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Sometimes the narrative is just too powerful to ignore.
Jamie Vardy will make his 500th and final appearance for Leicester here and will not feature in the season finale at Liverpool next Sunday to allow him a King Power Stadium farewell.
He will be celebrated before and after kick-off as the club finish their home campaign in a battle between two already relegated clubs.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Leicester City’s Jamie Vardy sits down to look back at his journey at the club
With nothing on the line this could turn into a bit of Vardy sideshow and he is no stranger to grabbing the limelight. He is searching for his 200th goal for Leicester too. His 5/4 anytime goalscorer price is an obvious starting point but boosting it up by taking the 4/1 with Sky Bet on him scoring the last goal of the game makes sense.
Some things are just meant to be.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Arsenal vs Newcastle, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
The draw at 5/2 with Sky Bet must be of interest based on it suiting both teams. If this rolls past 70 minutes with the scores level we could get a drifty end that peters out.
Newcastle know a point will be just fine for their prospects as they’d have Champions League qualification firmly in their hands heading into the final day knowing a win over Everton at home would secure a top-five finish.
Meanwhile, you get the feeling Mikel Arteta and his boys just want the season to end now. Arsenal have dropped 18 points in their last 11 Premier League games, winning just three times and have been beaten by the Toon on three occasions already this season. A draw is fine for them in terms of finishing second with only Southampton to come for them.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Draw and Under 2.5 Goals in match (4/1 with Sky Bet)
Brighton vs Liverpool, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Taking a view on player cards in end-of-season games isn’t an ideal punting strategy but we’ve got a full-back here who is in an aggressive mood.
Conor Bradley is a man looking to take his chance following Trent Alexander-Arnold’s decision to move on and his ability to play calm and composed isn’t going to be helped by the transfer move for Jeremie Frimpong. Bradley does still look quite reckless and raw at times, making five fouls and being carded on both in his last two starts. He’s 5/2 with Sky Bet to pick up another booking.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Jones Knows’ best bets…
- 1pt double on: Jarrod Bowen to score or assist & Everton to win & over 2.5 goals (7/2 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt on Arsenal vs Newcastle under 2.5 goals & draw (4/1 with Sky Bet)
P+L = +14.97
Sky Sports to show 215 live PL games from next season
Sky Sports to show 215 live Premier League games from next season
From next season, Sky Sports’ Premier League coverage will increase from 128 matches to at least 215 games exclusively live.
And 80 per cent of all televised Premier League games next season are on Sky Sports.
