Twelve months ago, Nottingham Forest were a point outside the Premier League relegation places with three matches to play.
At the same point this season, they’re sixth, two points outside the Champions League spots, and certain of Europa League football at least.
Yet there’s supposedly frustration and anxiety at the City Ground, because of a recent and obvious dip in form.
There is no doubt that the current downturn in results is untimely and that it has unsettled a group of players who have never experienced this sort of situation before.
The stats certainly show just how far Forest have fallen. They’ve won just one of their last six Premier League games. They’ve taken just four points out of the last 18 available. Before that, they were unbeaten in five, despite playing Manchester United, Manchester City and Arsenal.
We have learned this season that Forest are prolific on the counter attack, and that they are much more comfortable when they don’t have dominance over the ball.
Nottingham Forest have had more possession in recent weeks but that has coincided with a dip in results
In the last five games, they’ve had much greater possession on average (45.1 per cent) compared to the previous seven matches (38.1 per cent). Does this suggest that opponents have learned better how to nullify Forest’s threat? Let them have the ball more, sit a little deeper, and deny them space to break quickly? Does it suggest Forest struggle when they go into a game as favourites, when they are expected to dictate the play?
That will be a worry for Nuno with already-relegated Leicester at the City Ground on Sunday, live on Sky Sports.
Sunday 11th May 1:00pm
Kick off 2:15pm
It’s notable that Forest’s only win in the last five came against Spurs – who had 70 per cent possession in that game and more than four times the level of expected goals. By trying to dominate, Spurs played into Forest’s hands.
Nottingham Forest’s only recent win came at Spurs, when their hosts dominated the ball
But it’s time for a bit of perspective.
Forest’s progress has been astonishing, but it isn’t beyond the owner’s expectations. It’s just come faster than anyone else thought was possible. When Evangelos Marinakis bought the club in 2017, Forest were labouring in the Championship but he said he wanted to see the club return to the top table of European football, to bring back the glory days of 1979 and 1980, when this small East Midlands club were back-to-back champions of Europe.
While all the Forest fans loved that sentiment, they thought it was pie in the sky. It’s what you’d expect a new owner to say, isn’t it? But Marinakis was serious then. And he still is now.
There is undoubtedly a wider sense around the club and fanbase that Forest have over-achieved this season (a season boosted by many of the ‘big’ clubs floundering, such as Manchester United, Tottenham and even Manchester City). But that is not the owner’s view. He is impatient for success. And whether his team make the Champions League this season or not, that is his target for next season for sure.
He will expect it and will plan for that eventuality because he expects progress every year. And if Forest make the Europea League, he will expect his side to be in the mix to win that trophy instead.
Forest set to spend heavily this summer
Evangelos Marinakis will retake control of Nottingham Forest if they fail to make the Champions League spots
It’s now clear that if Forest don’t make the Champions League, Marinakis will take full control of the club again.
Last month, he was forced to relinquish any influence over Nottingham Forest so as to avoid breaching UEFA’s rules which forbid one single person having dominant control over two teams in the same European competition. Olympiacos have confirmed their place in the league phase of the Champions League for next season, but if Forest now fall short, the Greek billionaire will return immediately to be the decision-making talisman at the City Ground.
However, there is no doubt that the huge added prize money garnered from Champions League participation would make a significant difference to Forest’s transfer ambitions for the summer.
Let’s be clear – Forest will spend serious money, whatever happens. Their PSR concerns of two seasons ago have abated. But there are already two differing strategies ready to be activated – one with Champions League funds, one without.
Manchester United’s co-owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe recently put an estimated price on Champions League qualification of between £80-£100m, while he said Europa League qualification was worth £40m. That extra £40-60m for making the elite level of European football could be a game-changer for Forest and will dictate the number of transfers they target, rather than the calibre.
Whoever they bring in will be designed to be an upgrade on what they already have. But with Champions League football, that may well mean an extra three or four elite-level players.
It is far from certain Nottingham Forest would accept big-money offers for star players such as Morgan Gibbs-White
When it comes to possible outgoings, expect Forest to be equally bullish. The perceived wisdom in football is that if Manchester City come calling for Morgan Gibbs-White, Forest will allow him to leave for big money. That if Manchester United decide they want Anthony Elanga, their offer will be too persuasive to turn down. I’m not so sure.
Look at Marinakis’ decision to reject a potential £50m bid for Elanga on deadline day from Newcastle. Marinakis wants his team built around his superstars, rather than dismantling it, and he would be very reluctant to sell to a club he considers a Champions League rival.
Nuno focused on setting up ‘winner-takes-all’ final-day game with Chelsea
Whichever level of European football Forest end up with, Nuno Espirito Santo is adamant he needs a bigger squad to cope effectively with the extra games they will have to contend with. And his message to his players right now is to keep up the fight, ignore what’s happening with their Champions League rivals, and stress that, despite a confidence dip, Forest’s destiny is in their own hands.
The final game of the season at home to Chelsea could be defining, in that regard. The mission before then is to make sure that final game at the City Ground on May 25 is ‘winner takes all’.
Chris Wood has struggled for form in recent weeks
Before that come games against Leicester and West Ham – and the stats offer some clues as Forest look to reboot their Champions League bid.
Ultimately, whether Nuno’s side make the Champions League may come down to whether they can quickly rebuild belief, and stick to the formula that has been so successful for them this season.
Having proved the doubters wrong, bucked the trend where promoted sides have struggled in the Premier League, and made the Forest fans reasonably comfortable with the idea that they are perennial Premier League members, Marinakis is already planning the next phase: one where Forest are an annual disrupter of the ‘big six’.
Watch Nottingham Forest vs Leicester live on Sky Sports Premier League from 1pm on Sunday; kick-off 2.15pm
