Locked on points and goal difference in fourth and fifth, the visit of Chelsea on Sunday is Newcastle’s biggest game of the season. Or is it?
Less than two months ago they beat champions Liverpool in the Carabao Cup final to win their first domestic trophy in 70 years.
The truth is Newcastle’s season has been littered with huge games – it’s a barometer of how far they have come in recent times. This crucial contest in the Champions League race is just the latest.
Eddie Howe was as composed as ever on Friday; telling a packed press room about his experience watching Bryan Adams in concert the night before. “I’d highly recommend him, if you want to see a live performance.” This was in reply to a direct question about what his favourite non-football experience had been this season.
Howe had to think hard and left it until he was about to leave the room. But as ever he answered it.
The only thing he wouldn’t answer was any details on his injury issues ahead of the St James’ Park showdown with Chelsea. He can’t have the Blues getting even a one per cent advantage.
But I think it showed where his head is at. He’s chilled. He’s had a fright with his health and he’s looking after himself. Showing himself a bit more love, as he put it a fortnight ago.
He knows Sunday is huge. But even if Newcastle do lose to Enzo Marseca’s swashbuckling side, they have two more opportunities – Arsenal away and Everton at home.
You would expect them to sweep aside the latter, and remember they’ve already beaten Arsenal three times this season, without conceding a goal.
I met one Newcastle player in a restaurant this week and he said “beat Chelsea and we have done it”.
I replied that I feel two wins will mean Newcastle are mathematically safe in the top five. But the way the season has gone for Newcastle, I wouldn’t bet against them winning all three.
For Howe and the Geordie faithful, rather than the Summer of ’69 they could be singing about the season of ’24/25.
Newcastle players relaxed and confident for run-in
Dan Burn celebrates after heading Newcastle into a 2-0 lead against Ipswich
I spent Thursday morning at the training ground as the players were gearing up for Chelsea. There’s an evident air of confidence around the place, which has been helped by the cup triumph in March. Liverpool were the only team left of the ‘big six’ they had failed to beat – well they did that with gusto in the final.
They’re in a good place and they know they can cap one of the club’s greatest seasons with qualification for the Champions League. Who would have thought that when they were on the bus back home from Brentford (due to high winds) back in December following a 4-2 defeat? That result saw them slip to 12th and prompted Howe to go through a video nasty of the performance on the long journey home.
But on Wednesday Bruno Guimaraes and Sandro Tonali were playing head tennis with Newcastle’s U9s, Kieran Trippier was hanging out the window playing practical jokes and Dan Burn was taking group selfies with the kids. It’s a dressing room that’s in a very good moment.
What Champions League spot means for transfers
Champions League qualification is hugely important for Newcastle as they try to keep up with the big spenders who are there every year. If they miss two seasons in succession they hamstring themselves further.
I asked Howe if his transfer strategy would be affected by a failure to reach Europe’s top table next season. He said they’d still target the same players, but clearly they wouldn’t have the same freedom in the market that an additional £40m plus would allow.
Of course, if they were to qualify they wouldn’t be able to spend that prize money straight away, as it would show up on the next set of accounts. But they could bring forward their spending, like they did with the signings of Anthony Gordon and Lewis Hall in 2023.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Take a look at our picks of the best goals from Alexander Isak’s Premier League career so far with Newcastle, after the Swede passed the 50-goal landmark against Nottingham Forest
Prize money aside, it’s important Newcastle qualify for the Champions League frequently to be seen as top-table attendees by potential commercial partners. This is how they really grow the club to the level of their competitors.
But until they’re bringing in a turnover akin to their rivals (Newcastle last year brought in less than a third of what Manchester City did) they are always going to be chasing shadows. And Champions League participation is a vital cog in all of that.
And as previously mentioned on this page, holding on to their own big-name stars (Alexander Isak, Sandro Tonali, Guimaraes and Gordon) is significantly simpler when they have the attraction of that Champions League theme tune to dangle in front of them.
New stadium latest
Newcastle are looking into plans for a new stadium
The stadium plans are separate to all of this. The club know they need to either expand or relocate and plans are afoot. We have been awaiting an update since January. But they know they need to get it right so are taking their time. This is a decision that is once in a generation.
PIF know they need to take a hit on this, and the cost is aside from any PSR constraints. Money banked for Champions League qualification will be used on transfers, and not on the stadium, which can be redeveloped without the PSR situation.
I’ll never know what everyone thinks, but I’m getting the feeling the fans generally seem more happy to move, so long as the stadium isn’t far from their current home. And the mooted plans for a new stadium next door to St James’ Park, in Leazes Park, appears to tick boxes as far as the fans are concerned.
