The lottery of the EFL play-offs is back… Or is it? What are the best and worst positions to finish in for any side with a hope of getting promoted?
Would finishing just short of the automatic spots give you the best chance of reaching the league above, or does the disappointment of missing out on the top two or three weigh too heavy on the shoulders?
How about sneaking into the final play-off spot – does finishing bottom of the pile act as a disadvantage, or with the previous 46 games behind them, does league position go out the window?
We’ve crunched the numbers to explain everything over the past 20 years…
Unsurprisingly, the team finishing top of the play-off pile has historically had the best chance of promotion, though the advantage is not as pronounced as it could be and it doesn’t occur in every league.
Overall, 38 of 60 – more than 60 per cent – of teams finishing in the top play-off spot since 2004/05 in the Championship, League One and League Two have reached the final with just over half of them going on to win at Wembley.
League Two bucks the trend though. In the only division which has three automatic promotion positions the team finishing fourth, in the top play-off spot, has found itself facing somewhat of a cursed run of luck over the last 20 years.
In that time, the best-placed team has, in fact, had the worst record of reaching the League Two play-off final – and the joint-worst chance of getting promoted.
With that in mind, it comes as no shock that of the 12 teams who have finished in the bottom play-off spot across the divisions since 2005, seven have come from League Two. That includes last year’s Wembley winners Crawley Town, who then went on to miss out on League One survival by a single point.
Are positions cursed, or are clubs?
Every club has its own play-off memories – with some a lot more rose-tinted than others. Neil Warnock’s Notts County were the first to achieve back-to-back promotions by that method, rising up from the old Third Division to the top flight with victories at the old Wembley in 1990 and 1991.
Some have a less favourable relationship with the post-season promotion tournament. One of this season’s 12 entrants Sheffield United, for instance, have reached the play-offs nine times – but have never been promoted that way.
Bristol City are the only other team competing in this season’s play-offs to have never won promotion by that method. Both sides could learn a lot from a third, AFC Wimbledon, who were victorious in their only previous appearance in 2016.
Who has the best and worst play-off records?
AFC Wimbledon are one of five teams to have a 100-per-cent success rate in the play-offs – but all five have only appeared once. Aldershot, Crawley, Dagenham and Redbridge and Man City are the other teams to have played one, won one.
Here are the best-performing teams in EFL history since the play-offs were first introduced in 1987…
There are plenty of teams to have never tasted victory in the play-offs, but some have endured more heartache than others. None more than Sheffield United, whose nine unsuccessful play-off campaigns are unrivalled.
The Blades will have the opportunity to finally shake off their hoodoo over the next two and a half weeks – and get themselves back to the Premier League at the first attempt.
Championship play-off schedule
Semi-final first legs
Thursday May 8: Bristol City vs Sheffield United – Ashton Gate, kick-off 8pm
Friday May 9: Coventry City vs Sunderland – CBS Arena, kick-off 8pm
Semi-final second legs
Monday May 12: Sheffield United vs Bristol City – Bramall Lane, kick-off 8pm
Tuesday May 13: Sunderland vs Coventry City – Stadium of Light, kick-off 8pm
Final
Saturday May 24: TBC vs TBC – Wembley, kick-off TBC
League One play-off schedule
Semi-final first legs
Saturday May 10: Leyton Orient vs Stockport County – Brisbane Road, kick-off 12.30pm
Sunday May 11: Wycombe vs Charlton – Adams Park, kick-off 6.30pm
Semi-final second legs
Wednesday May 14: Stockport vs Leyton Orient – Edgeley Park, kick-off 8pm
Thursday May 15: Charlton vs Wycombe – The Valley, kick-off 8pm
Final
Sunday May 25: TBC vs TBC – Wembley, kick-off 1pm
League Two play-off schedule
Semi-final first legs
Saturday May 10: Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon – Meadow Lane, kick-off 8pm
Sunday May 11: Chesterfield vs Walsall – SMH Group Stadium, kick-off 3.30pm
Semi-final second legs
Friday May 16: Walsall vs Chesterfield – Poundland Bescot Stadium, kick-off 8pm
Saturday May 17: AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County – Cherry Red Records Stadium, kick-off 12.30pm
Final
Monday May 26: TBC vs TBC – Wembley, kick-off 3pm
