More Nigerians to sink into poverty by 2027 – World Bank

The World Bank on Thursday said that poverty in Nigeria will increase by 3.6 percentage points over the next five years through 2027.

The bank made the disclosure in its Africa’s Pulse report released at the ongoing Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Washington DC, United States.

The report said non-resource-rich countries are expected to continue reducing poverty faster than resource-rich countries, adding that due to higher prices of agricultural commodities, non-resource-rich countries will see higher growth overall, despite fiscal pressures.

“Conversely, resource-rich countries are not expected to grow at the same rate given decelerating oil prices. As a result, resource-rich countries are expected to see less progress in terms of poverty reduction (figure 1.10).

“Importantly, poverty in resource-rich, fragile countries (which include large countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Nigeria) is expected to increase by 3.6 percentage points over 2022–27, being the only group in the region with increasing poverty rates.”

In separate note contained in the report, the World Bank cautioned that its finding calls for “urgent improvement in service delivery in countries with rapidly expanding populations, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Nigeria.”

The report said the development follows a well-established pattern, whereby resource wealth combined with fragility or conflict is associated with the highest poverty rates—an average poverty rate of 46 per cent in 2024, 13 percentage points above non-fragile, resource-rich countries. Meanwhile, non-resource-rich, non-fragile countries saw the biggest gains in poverty reduction since 2000 and fully closed the gap in poverty with other non-resource-rich countries by 2010.

Urbanisation Impact

Although most of the population of Africa and its highest levels of poverty are found in rural areas, the World Bank said rapid urbanisation could accelerate poverty reduction under the right conditions.

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“From 2010 to 2019, poverty reduction was primarily driven by urbanisation rather than significant decreases in poverty within rural or urban areas. In 2020, only 41 per cent of the continent was urbanised, but the urban population is projected to grow by over 238 million by2035, surpassing the rural population,” it said.

This rapid growth presents opportunities for the rural poor seeking to improve their livelihoods through migration, it added.

However, the success of this transition will depend on the ability of urban areas to provide the necessary infrastructure, services, and employment opportunities to support the increased population.

In 2018, reports emerged that Nigeria overtook India as the country with the largest number of people living in extreme poverty, with an estimated 87 million Nigerians said to be living on less than $1.90 per day.

Since then, the government has made claims to lifting people out of poverty, even as the living condition in most parts of the country has deteriorated.

Since he assumed power, President Bola Tinubu has introduced sweeping socio-economic reforms which the government said were aimed at fixing the economy and redirecting it on the path of growth – removal of fuel subsidies, unification of exchange rates, among others.

The ripple effects of the policies have been severe on many Nigerians, amid elevated food prices and sundry inflationary pressures, triggering hunger protests across sections of the country.